ALP 15.2%
Incumbent MP
Tony Burke, since 2004. Previously member of the NSW Legislative Council, 2003-2004.
Geography
Inner west and south-western Sydney. Watson mostly covers northern parts of the City of Canterbury-Bankstown, along with the southern end of the Strathfield council area. Watson covers the suburbs of Bankstown, Belmore, Canterbury, Campsie, Chullora, Condell Park, Georges Hall, Greenacre, Lakemba, Strathfield South, Wiley Park, Yagoona and parts of Punchbowl.
Redistribution
Watson shifted west, losing Ashbury, Burwood Heights, Croydon Park and the remainder of Ashfield, losing Rookwood Cemetery and the remainder of Lidcombe to Blaxland, and also losing Roselands, parts of Punchbowl and the remainder of Kingsgrove to Banks and Barton. Watson then gained most of the southern half of Blaxland, including Bankstown, Condell Park, Georges Hall and Yagoona. This big change only had a small impact on Labor’s margin, which fell from 15.2% to 15.1%.
The Division of Watson is a recent creation, having been created in 1993 to replace the Division of St George. In its short history it has always been a safe Labor seat.
The seat was first won in 1993 by the ALP’s Leo McLeay. McLeay had previously held the neighbouring seat of Grayndler since 1979, and had served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1989 until shortly before the 1993 election, when he was forced to resign over allegations of a false compensation claim.
McLeay was reelected at the 1996, 1998 and 2001 elections before retiring at the 2004 election.
The seat was won in 2004 by the ALP’s Tony Burke, who had held a seat in the NSW Legislative Council since March 2003. He moved immediately to the Labor shadow ministry in 2004 and served on the frontbench ever since, including as a senior minister from 2007 to 2013 and again since 2022.
Assessment
Watson is a typical safe Labor seat, but Tony Burke is being challenged by a prominent local doctor with links to the local Muslim community. Watson has one of the largest Muslim populations of any Australian federal electorate. The seat has been identified as a key target for a campaign to move Muslim voters away from the ALP, in part over the war in Gaza. This seat will be a test of that campaign’s effectiveness. It would be foolish to predict what will happen, but this area doesn’t have a strong history of voting for independents.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Burke | Labor | 44,464 | 51.9 | +0.2 | 54.1 |
| Sazeda Akter | Liberal | 22,759 | 26.5 | -2.9 | 26.4 |
| Bradley Schott | Greens | 8,200 | 9.6 | +2.5 | 7.1 |
| John Koukoulis | United Australia | 6,126 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 7.1 |
| Alan Jorgensen | One Nation | 4,178 | 4.9 | +4.9 | 5.3 |
| Informal | 9,245 | 9.7 | -2.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Burke | Labor | 55,810 | 65.1 | +1.6 | 65.2 |
| Sazeda Akter | Liberal | 29,917 | 34.9 | -1.6 | 34.8 |
Polling places in Watson have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.4% in the west to 69.8% in the east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 66.8 | 15,223 | 17.8 |
| East | 69.8 | 13,862 | 16.2 |
| West | 61.4 | 13,675 | 16.0 |
| Pre-poll | 65.1 | 29,834 | 34.9 |
| Other votes | 62.3 | 12,903 | 15.1 |
Election results in Watson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
@ lnp
The voters intention is clear 1 to 6
There should be a savings provision based on voter intention.
A vote is formal to the extent that their intention can be identified.
Ben – that could be it. The informal rate jumped to 11% in Riverina where there were 13 candidates – the equal largest field this election. In Calwell, the informal rate was less than 10% even though it had 13 candidates as well and a more multicultural and larger migrant population.
@Lachlan Ridge I 100% agree. There’s a lot of 5th gen Aussies who still don’t understand preferential voting.
@LNP Insider I have spoken to a scrutineer who said exactly the same, a lot of people numbered 1-6 in an electorate with 8 seats.
On a somewhat related note – I complained to the AEC about a poll booth worker who was telling voters to vote “1-6 only” if voting above the line on the senate paper. When I told her it was “at least” 6, she didn’t believe me until I showed her where it was written. It’s not the first time this has happened, not sure if maybe there isn’t an AEC trainer who’s got it wrong down here.
But at any rate – if the instructions given by the people behind the desk are confusing… you’re going to get more informals as the ballot paper grows.
@Expat. Thank you for complaining to the AEC about that. I fear that there is very little stability in the casual AEC workforce, meaning that the AEC staff (who do their best to train people in a very limited timeframe) are starting virtually from scratch – and a knowledge base close to zero – with many of the casuals in many seats every election.
@Expat I overheard the same thing from one of the poll booth workers at my booth, although thankfully the one who was directly talking to me who explained it properly.
@Ben Raue – would it be possible to have some analysis of informal voting rates and compare to things such as number of candidates, education level and language background of voters. Would also be interesting to see if it is any higher in perceived safe seats.
If guessing here that low number of candidates and English language background then a seat like Bean with 2.5% informal in 2025 would be the gold standard for formal votes (all ACT electorates seemed the same with Canberra slightly lower at 2.2% – but with 6 candidates)
The number of candidates theory seems to hold with a quick look at my seat of Mackellar where informal doubled this year and the number of candidates went from 7 to 9
I have this on my list, but if you look into it you’ll find some old blog posts on this topic.
To those who have scrutineered and have seen incomplete ballots, are certain parties over represented? Are they anti-establishment or protest parties like One Nation or Trumpet of Patriots?